Opportunity

Opportunity is the hidden factor that explains why so many solutions proposed for today€™s problems will fall far wide off the mark. The conventional wisdom about the large issues of our times is conventional nonsense. Conventional forecasts still take no account of what we know about opportunity, uncertainty, and risk. Changing circumstances inevitably create unforeseen opportunities. The error is compounded when policies lock societies into large commitments that fail to respect intrinsic uncertainty or unseen feedback effects. The author is an expert in the use of options theory and decision analysis in technology investment. These analytical tools are applied to the large issues of our times in this the desire for energy independence, halting climate change, the commoditization of industry, graying societies, and the resolution of human conflict. While disastrous policy prescriptions are hardly new to history, modern societies are doing far too little to use what they now