The Third Wave

Between 1974 and 1990, over thirty countries in southern Europe, Latin America, East Asia, and Eastern Europe transitioned from authoritarianism to democracy, marking a significant political trend in the late twentieth century. This analysis examines the causes and nature of these transitions, assesses the stability of new democracies, and considers the potential for further democratization. These recent changes represent the third major wave of democratization, each followed by a reverse wave where some nations reverted to authoritarianism. Through concrete examples and empirical evidence, the author explains the factors driving this trend, including the legitimacy crises of authoritarian regimes, economic and social development, the evolving role of the Catholic Church, and the influences of the U.S., the European Community, and the Soviet Union. The "snowballing" effect, where change in one country inspires others, is also highlighted. Key elite groups influenced the democratization processes, with compromise, elections, and nonviolent tactics being central. New democracies face challenges such as the "torturer problem" and the need to cultivate democratic values. The author argues that disillusionment with democracy can be crucial for its consolidation. The book concludes with an analysis of the factors that will determine the continuation of this wave and offers practical guidelines for those involved in democratization e