Operationalisierung von Ersetzungspotentialen in Erwerbstätigkeiten durch Technologie

Many studies analyze substitution potentials of occupations as the amount of their tasks, which machines can possibly carry out in the future. In the following, we discuss to what extent these substitution potentials might actually materialize along the interpretation of a plethora of indexes. We, first, combine two indexes about task content from the employer and employee perspective to assess substitution potentials. Second, we construct four different indexes about the state of digitalization of industrial sectors and use them to discuss actual exploitation of substitution potentials. Our findings suggest that relatively large decreases in labor demand are possible in the chemical and pharmaceutical sector as well as traffic, warehousing, and postal services. For these sectors, we find both comparably high substitution potentials and exploitation.